I’m a little annoyed by the non-data-driven trading *wisdom* like selling at the typical MA50 / MA200 Bitcoin death cross nonsense. Here our current arising death cross:
[death cross nonsense](https://preview.redd.it/jjjjnxc9uv571.png?width=2550&format=png&auto=webp&s=45c12c715937360b177ce845feaa240ea8e04be5)
I was wondering why so many people just put up with this without doing any data-driven simulations on it. With a simple python script I have compared the death cross strategy with the bitcoin HODL strategy. Here is the result:
[HODL vs. death cross](https://preview.redd.it/uuz4ljvgvv571.png?width=1028&format=png&auto=webp&s=434addca5d2cdf6dd59e58854386baaeb66b1b85)
The death cross would have turned $ 1 into $ 22,000.
Sounds good right?
But HODL would have given you $ 812,000. You would have missed -97.3% performance if you had listened to the death cross. Of course, historical backtesting is no guarantee for the future, but at least this data-driven analysis has brought the big picture closer to me.
(some details could be found [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QW0plwtlDl0) in a short video)